|
Latest Projections
Are For Almost 310,000 Deaths In The US By December 1, 2020
Daily Deaths To
Increase From 1K To 2K Per Day
Universal Mask Use
Could Prevent More Than 50% Of The Anticipated Deaths
As evidence for the
lack of control of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic in the US, the number of
daily deaths is expected to continue climbing from approximately 1,000
per day now to reach approximately 2,000 per day by mid-November.
Projections
The latest projections
from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) at the
University of Washington School of Medicine indicate that an estimated
135,218 additional deaths are projected to occur between mid-August
and the beginning of December 2020. This number would add to the
approximately 174,100 COVID deaths that have already occurred in the
US as of August 21, 2020.
The total projected by
December 1 now reaches 309,918, an increase of about 15,000
deaths
just
since
the last projection was released on August 6, 2020.
Warning
The IMHE
warns that the projected number of deaths could be much higher if the
states with daily death rates over 8 per million fail to re-impose
mandates to control transmission. Half of all the 50 states are likely
to have to reimpose mandates between now and December 1 not to exceed
the already high projected number.
Mask Use
More
than half of the new anticipated deaths or 69,027 could be prevented
according to the IMHE with universal use of masks which it defines as
95% of people wearing masks outside their homes. Currently, the IMHE
estimates that mask use has held steady at approximately 55% since
July but some states are at a higher level of mask use.
A recent
survey of states by the Association for the Advancement of Retired
Persons (AARP) finds that as of August 4, 2020 34 states or two-thirds
of state jurisdictions require people to wear face coverings in
public. The District of Columbia and Puerto Rico also have such mask
orders.
Mask
Use Variation
According to AARP, State mandates vary in details (for example,
exemptions for children range in cutoff age from 2 to 12), but broadly
speaking, they require masks in indoor public spaces such as
restaurants and stores, on public transit and ride-hailing services,
and outdoors when unable to maintain 6 feet of distance from others.
Exceptions are given for a variety of reasons and conditions. For a
list of where each state stands as of mid-August, visit:
https://bit.ly/3hmkQGo
Mask
Effectiveness
IMHE
estimates from its statistical analysis that mask mandates with no
penalties increase mask wearing by about 8 percentage points which
increases to 15 percentage points when mandates are accompanied with
penalties. No national goal or mask wearing target has been
established to try to achieve the maximum reduction in deaths. The
initiative has been left to states to carry out. IMHE indicates that
mandated mask use with penalties and/or a concerted public information
campaign will be needed to save the estimated 69,027 lives that could
be saved over the next three months.
Deadly Cycle
The pattern of
mask use appears to wax and wane as infections increase or decrease in
a particular population. IMHE calls this “a deadly cycle”. According
to IMHE Director Christopher Murray, the public’s behavior has a major
impact on transmission risk and therefore an impact on the numbers of
deaths. “Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be
an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down
patterns in individual states throughout the coming months and into
next year,” according to Murray. ■
|