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If
you watched the news at all this month, you heard about the
attention-grabbing research conducted by two Princeton engineers
predicted the demise of Facebook, and the amusing tongue in
cheek research carried out in response by Facebook. What
happened?
Research
Model
The Princeton
researchers assumed that online social networks behave like
infectious diseases, that is, adoption of social media is like
getting an infection, and abandoning social media is like
recovery from illness. They modified an infectious disease model
to predict what would happen with susceptibles, infected
persons, and those who recovered.
They used Google
search query data as a surrogate for usership of online social
networks and then looked at the performance of the model for
MySpace, a social network site whose members came and went in
the recent past. They were satisfied with the model and applied
it to Google query data about Facebook. Based on the results
from the model, they predicted that Facebook “will undergo a
rapid decline in the coming years, losing 80% of its peak user
base between 2015 and 2017.”
Facebook
Reaction
Facebook data
scientists responded not in bureaucratic fashion but by spoofing
the “robust” methodology of the Princeton engineers, namely by
following the principle that correlation equals causation.
Facebook research based on Facebook Likes showed that Princeton
is itself at risk of disappearing, and based on Google search
data showed Princeton papers in journals dropping dramatically.
Also, Google search scores reveal that Princeton trends have
been declining for years.
Acknowledging
their paper was not peer-reviewed, the authors acknowledged that
they were mostly trying to provide a fun reminder that not all
research is created equal, and some methods of analysis lead to
pretty crazy conclusions.
To read the
reports, visit:
Princeton report
http://tinyurl.com/mwknh5l
Facebook report
http://tinyurl.com/kbcr2t7
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