Web EpiMonitor

Modeller Estimates Of Cumulative COVID-19 Deaths In The US Now Projected At 143,357 By August 4, 2020

US Ranks Fifth In Deaths Per Million

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) released an updated estimate for the cumulative number of deaths in the US projected to occur by August 4, 2020. That number is 143,357, a number which has increased over time as the modelling has improved and the realities of the disease have become more apparent.

 First Projections

Initially, the Seattle based group had projected approximately 82,000 deaths, a number much lower that the projected number from modellers at the Imperial College in London.

Those numbers were widely reported to have influenced both the US and UK decisions to adopt drastic social distancing measures. They indicated that 2.2 million deaths in the US and 510,000 deaths in the UK  could occur without any social distancing measures at all.

Since that scenario was judged unlikely, the Imperial group subsequently revised their estimates downward to 1.1-1.2 million deaths in the US and 250,000 in the UK taking social distancing into account.

Potential Revisions

The IMHE estimate now has almost doubled since the first estimates were released in March. And it is possible the estimates will have to be revised upwards again depending on what happens to the testing, tracing, and  isolation strategy that has been recommended across the board by public health professionals. Few areas have created the full infrastructure they will need. According to the IHME, “it is worth noting that the full effects of recent actions to ease social distancing policies, especially if robust containment measures have yet to be fully scaled up, may not be fully known for a few weeks due to the time periods between viral exposure, possible infection, and full disease progression.” In short, the final cumulative number of deaths could grow even larger.

“Ensemble Model”

In what is called a COVID-19 forecast hub, Nicolas Reich and colleagues at the University of Massachusetts have curated 36 models from 20 teams of highly respected infectious disease forecasters. “Forecasting COVID-19 is a completely different ballgame because we can’t rely on 20 years of public health surveillance data like we have for flu,” Reich says. The hub has implemented what it calls an “ensemble” forecast which they claim offers a more accurate picture of the future than any single model can project. They estimate that even though the US weekly count of deaths will continue its current downward trend from approximately 10,000 deaths per week now to 7,000 per week by early June, the cumulative number of deaths is projected to exceed 110,000 by June 13.

Country Comparisons

To put these statistics in perspective, it is useful to compare the number of deaths in the US with other countries. We selected the top ten countries with the largest number of confirmed cases from the WorldoMeter website. (See Table on page 7). The US accounts for approximately 30% of all cases worldwide. The nine other countries  account for 39% of cases so that altogether the top ten countries which account for only 5% of the 213 countries being tracked account for just over two thirds of all cases.

While the US is first in the absolute number of cases, its reported case rate per million population (5,058) is lower than that of Spain (6,040). In terms of deaths per million population, which may be a more reliable measure of impact since it is not influenced by level of testing, the US at 299 ranks fifth in the top ten countries with the most reported cases. The rate in Germany at 100 is lower than other comparable European countries.

Source: Worldometer May 24, 2020
 

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