|
Control Of
Covid-19 In The US Is Mostly Bad News, But Highly Effective Vaccines
And Declining Fatality Rates Are Good News
As Covid-19 cases,
hospitalizations, and deaths are increasing in most US states,
compliance with recommended control measures seems to be decreasing.
Over 2,000 deaths were recorded in one day before Thanksgiving and the
CDC warning to avoid travel over the holiday went unheeded at many
airports.
More Deaths
According to the Institute for Health
Metrics and
Evaluation (IHME), the US has now recorded over 263,000 deaths and it
projects an additional 208,000 deaths by March 1 for a total
approaching half a million (471,000) caused by SARS-CoV-2. This
prediction assumes that states will re-impose social distancing
mandates as risk increases beyond 8
daily deaths per million.
Otherwise, the final death count by March 1 could reach 658,000.
For now,
IHME estimates that daily deaths will reach a peak of over 2,500 per
day in mid-January and may even climb to 5,000 per day if restrictions
are eased rather than tightened.
Masks
The IMHE continues to
suggest that increasing mask use to 95% could save many lives, and as
many as 65,000 by March 1. However mask-wearing behavior defined as
always using a mask when leaving home seems to have peaked at 68%,
according to IHME and right now it projects no increase in that
percentage. However, President-elect Biden has called for mask
mandates at the state level in his revised Covid-19 control plan (see
article in this issue), and this policy emphasis could save thousands
of additional lives if widely adopted.
Good News
On the good news side,
the IHME estimates that the infection fatality rate (IFR) has declined
over time by an estimated 30% since last spring. This
may be due to
the use of drugs and learning how to better care for patients over
time. Data suggest the IFR varies also as a function of the level of
obesity in a community and the age structure of that population. The
preliminary reports from randomized controlled trials of highly
effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has been called nothing less than a
“scientific triumph” and one achieved in record time.
Rush No Problem
According to Arnold
Monto, University of Michigan epidemiologist who chairs the Food
and Drug Administration’s Covid-19 vaccine advisory committee, the
fact that the vaccine was rushed should be ignored. He told local
media in Michigan “the rush happened because of extra funds and extra
attention that was given. The platform, the way these vaccines were
produced, was already there.”
■
|