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Present and Near Future Pandemic
Situations Look Bleak
High Uptake Of
Mask Wearing Could Still Save Thousands Of Lives In The US And Change
Course Of The Pandemic Worldwide
The picture of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States which emerges from the combined forecast of two dozen modelling
groups predicts there will likely be between 150,000 to 170,000 total
reported deaths by August 8, 2020, according to CDC which aggregates
these reports. As of mid-July the actual number of deaths stood at
138,782.
Cases continue to rise in the US with over 70,000 cases being reported
each day in mid-July and the US cases still have not peaked.
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Graphs By The
New York Times Updated
July 20, 2020, 1:59 P.M. E.T. |
No Peak Yet
More distressing are US the predictions released by the
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) which projects
224,546 deaths by November 1, 2020. This projected number has
increased by more than 15,000 deaths just in the last few days.
According to IMHE Director Christopher Murray, “ The US didn’t
experience a true end to the first wave of the pandemic…This will not
spare us from a second surge in the fall which will hit particularly
hard in states currently seeing high levels of infection.”
The recent upswing in the US has been experienced in
young people who have a lower risk of death. An assumption being made
is that the current surge of infections does not spread more widely to
groups that are at higher risk of death. On the other hand, it is
possible that additional advances in treatment such as those that have
already occurred (e.g., remdesivir, proning, dexamethasone) could
produce a downward shift in the number of overall deaths. No one
expects a vaccine to be available and widely used within this
timeframe.
Positive Side
On the positive side, the IMHE estimates that if strong
social distancing mandates are reimposed when deaths per day reach a
level of 8 per million (a higher rate than was occurring when mandates
were imposed initially because modellers assume reimposition will be
more difficult to achieve a second time), and if at least 95% of the
population wears masks in public places, then the US could cut the
November projection by an estimated 41,304 lives. That amounts to
saving approximately 400 lives each day between now and then. IMHE
states “those who refuse masks are putting their lives, their
families, their friends, and their communities at risk.”
World Impact
The effectiveness of mask wearing can reduce
respiratory infections by 33% and slow community spread and the IMHE
estimates that increasing mask use could lead to greater than 50%
reductions in the number of deaths in many locations around the world.
It could change the course of the pandemic, according to IMHE.
State Impacts
The estimated deaths by Novermber 1 in the US have been
calculated separately by state. Some of these states such as New York
have already experienced the bulk of their projected deaths with only
slight increases anticipated between now and November.
Other states such as Florida and Texas have experienced
a much smaller percentage of their projected deaths.
For example, as of July 19, 2020, Florida has had an
estimated 4,894 deaths out of a projected 19,284 by November 1 which
is only 25% of projected deaths. Likewise Texas with 3,929 deaths to
date and with 18,675 projected has only experienced 21% of their
projected deaths.
California has had an estimated 8,000 deaths out of a
projected 21,264 or 38%. South Carolina is in a similar situation
having had only a quarter of its projected deaths, albeit with smaller
absolute numbers. These states have the most to gain in lives saved by
adopting universal masking with thousands of lives at stake in the
largest states. Even in South Carolina, an estimated 2,450 of the
3,437 projected deaths yet to occur or 71% could be prevented by near
universal masking.
To
view the latest projections visit:
https://bit.ly/39fdIZ2
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