New
Method Said To Improve Outbreak Control
“The
difference between the projections and the actual size of
the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused intense public debate. But
rather than focusing on how big the outbreak would be, our
study focused on what to do to keep it small.” That is how
Shou-Li Li, principal author of a recent report in
the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
characterized the focus of his study using a method from
economics and wildlife management called “value of
information” analysis. With that technique they reviewed
37 models of Ebola outbreak dynamics and found that these
models consistently rated reducing transmission rates at
public funerals and in the community as the two most
important control strategies. According to Shou-Li, the
method helps identify “…the best course of action, given
what we know now, and highlights the gaps in our knowledge
that actually matter to the selection of intervention
strategies.” The method potentially can be used in real
time with fast-moving disease threats in other non-Ebola
situations to make decisions with imperfect or incomplete
information. The authors were able to estimate that the
use of their method could have created a reduction of 3266
cases and saved 1633 lives.
|
|